I was wondering today just how text messaging is going to change once smart phones become pervasive. I mean really, just how long did the telecoms companies think they could get away with charging people [sometimes 10 cents per message] before an alternative arrived? When you think about it, that’s a lot of money for very little value.
Global Worldwide SMS Market
Unfortunately, this curve’s slope is about to change dramatically and in a negative way over the next few years. I expect that we will begin to see a pervasive alternative technology on phones that works similar to chat, thereby avoiding all of the messaging charges. At the same time, since the technology will be on smart phones, it will also need to have all of the existing features of current SMS technology.
While SMS is conveinent on phones today, if it wants to remain viable, it’s going to have to have increased functionality and a much lower cost structure if it wants to remain.
Interestingly, as I’m writing this I find a blog entry under Tech, For SMS, the days are numbered , where the author cites a Gartner study that says by 2012, email will be pervasive enough to replace SMS used on phones today. He really gives the same reasons as I do for the “death” of SMS.
While I would agree that SMS technology is destined to go the way of the analog TV, I am sure the timeframe will be a lot shorter that he thinks. I am convinced however, that SMS will NOT be replaced by email. There will be some of that, but the bulk will be more closely aligned with SMS or IM than it is with email.
I’m afraid that email will asle go the way of the analog TV in the not too distant future. Email as it is today is clearly not the communication choice for the current generation or anyone thatkeeps real current with technology. It has far too many negative, is slow, cumbersome, and lacks features like presence detection that IM has. Further, with any of these technologies, documents can be easily sent and in some cases it’s cleaner and easier than email.
ZDNet is a good example of open source journalism applied to a vertical market. (To respond to the graphic at the right click here.) We use open source tools. A small staff works with a large group of writers who are paid based on performance. The key is to monetize pages enough so income equals outgo with a bit left over. ... [
Dave Rosenberg is worried about Sun, a question discussed here last week. “If it fails,” he writes, “Sun will be the harbinger of sorrow for the rest of the open source world.” The open source business, yes. The open source world? Not so much. Open source is a fact of life. Gartner Group estimates all large businesses will be deploying it ... [
I think you can draw a straight line from the Vista Capable brouhaha to recent introductions of laptop Linux by HP and Dell, once Microsoft’s most loyal OEMs. (That is the HP 1000 to the right, from the screen of our own Erica Ogg.) Up in Seattle, TechFlash is gleefully poring over court filings related to Microsoft requiring a specific graphics ... [
President-elect Barack Obama is being told he will have to give up his Blackberry, by aides who fear subpoenas, the Presidential Records Act and e-mail insecurity. (Framed copies of this Time cover are already priced at $19.95.) While this is not entirely an open source story, it does get to the heart of what the Internet (and open source) make possible ... [
Etolos, which survived the dot-bomb as an enterprise Web application distributor outfit, hopes to survive the latest recession by moving to SaaS. Founder Danny Kolke signed back on just last month, re-worked the Web site, and re-launched the company this week. Unfortunately he is not coming to a happy little start-up, but a public company that is being chatted up on ... [
The news reminded me of a flower popping through a crust of lava after a volcanic eruption. Is this nature returning, or is this just a shoot that will be stomped on next time the mountain urps? It’s Sonatype, a start-up built to commercialize the Apache Maven project. Maven creator Jason van Zyl has recruited Mark de Visser, former chief marketing ... [
One of the big IT challenges of 2009 will have to be assuring that cloud computing really does represent a move forward. While there has been a lot of talk about clouds over the last year, about Amazon, about Google and about Microsoft, in fact Amazon’s is the only one open for business. Google has a consumer focus, and Microsoft’s Azure ... [
Re-reading some notes from yesterday’s work, and recalling several other stories from the past year, I may have come upon Google’s fatal flaw. Not invented here syndrome. A clue was found in the words of Black Duck’s Peter Vescuso, noting how Google released versions of Chrome and Android with well-known flaws in them. The flaws were patched in underlying technology but ... [
Black Duck Software said its business grew 68% last quarter, and that was without catching some of the big fish it was baiting its hook for. Senior vice president Peter Vescuso said what started as a business of open source license compliance has become an enterprise aimed at “the full lifecycle of application development. “We’re helping developers find the right components, ... [
Matt Asay was quick today to dismiss a prediction from Trip Chowdhry, published in Barron’s, that we’re all about to go bankrupt. So far as I could tell, Trip was just riffing off economic bears like Nouriel Roubini who predicted our current trouble and see more of it ahead. A lot more. Like Roubini I tend to see trouble long before ... [
After spending a pleasant hour with Flat World co-founder Eric Frank it seems obvious that the key to making “open source” textbooks work lies in the author’s bottom line. Frank is telling textbook authors that if they offer students their work for free online they can make it up on the back-end, through reprints, study guides and ancillary products. “We are ... [
Sun has laid the hammer down in enterprise storage, with an “open source” offering that really does pass the savings on to the customer, as they must be passed. Enterprise storage costs more than what you have in your home. My son is a gamer who has 850 Gigabytes of storage. The low end of the new Sun line is 2 ... [
If you want to know what the telco monopolists are feeling, deep in their multi-secretaried lairs, the best place to start is with Scott Cleland. Scott, through his Precursor blog, would like to be seen as the Karl Rove of telecom. He’s actually more the Frank Luntz. Or to put it another way, we wanted Denzel Washington. We’d take Andre Braugher. ... [
Whenever I write the word Microsoft on this blog I can be pretty certain of big traffic and big talkbacks. It’s a measure of just how much open source advocates loathe and fear Microsoft, and perhaps how Microsoft advocates return the compliment. The latest is Matt Asay’s report of Microsoft refusing to sponsor a conference unless tiny Zimbra was denied a ... [
Pingdom, a Web site monitoring outfit, did a piece on open source corporate valuations on its blog recent and they make sobering reading. You’ll never be Bill Gates working in open source. The valuations offered are, frankly, birdseed. Mozilla brought in under $67 million, 85% from Google. Canonical, the sponsor of Ubuntu, still isn’t profitable. SUSE Linux may book $110 million ... [


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